The National Socialist ambitions for a pan-German state had already raised tensions between Germany and the Allies. The German Army saw a war with the Allies as unwinnable and had planned a coup against Hitler’s regime. This was known as the Oster Conspiracy, named after its mastermind, Hans Oster.

For this plan to work, the German Army would need Hitler to authorize a war against Czechoslovakia, which was backed by Britain and France. As soon as the war began, the German Army planned to march into the Reich Chancellery, where Hitler worked, assassinate him, and dismantle the Nazi government altogether.

The motivation behind the German Army’s plan was their belief that Hitler’s government would lead Germany into a national catastrophe. They knew that Germany’s re-militarization, completely fueled by debt, would eventually bankrupt the state. The army was also strongly opposed to another massive war so soon after their devastating defeat in World War I. To save Germany, they reasoned, Hitler had to go. However, their plan lacked a crucial second half.

In our timeline, the conspiracy collapsed after Germany seized the Sudetenland and invaded Poland a year later. For the plan to have succeeded, it would have required significant improvements. The entire German Army did not support the conspiracy; therefore, even if it had succeeded, the Nazi government would likely have propagandized the event. It is probable that high-ranking Nazi politicians such as Hermann Göring or Rudolf Hess would have taken control of the government.

For the army to prevail, they would have needed to expand their operation—capturing key government buildings, taking control of the media, and arresting the Minister of Propaganda, Joseph Goebbels. With such improvements, success might have been possible.

Let’s imagine that, after these preparations and with the Allies refusing to appease Germany, the German Army successfully assassinated Hitler during the invasion of Czechoslovakia. The main question then arises: Who would take charge of the government?

Although there are many possible outcomes—such as the restoration of the Weimar Republic, a communist revolution, or another National Socialist leader taking power—this scenario will focus on the rise of Kaiser Wilhelm III.

If the son of Wilhelm II ascended the throne and the German Empire was restored, the royal houses within the empire would also return. Since Austria would now be part of the empire, the House of Habsburg would likely reappear as well. The new regime would be perceived as the return of the old elites who had been overthrown after World War I. The German Empire would likely announce new elections, though these would merely serve as a façade for the elite dynasties that truly ran the country.

By around 1940, the new German Empire might be fully secured, allowing Germany to focus outward and redefine its position in the world. Germany would seek new allies in Europe—most obviously Romania and Bulgaria, since both countries were ruled by German royal houses (the Hohenzollerns in Romania and the Saxe-Coburgs in Bulgaria). Hungary would also be a likely candidate for alliance.

To convince Britain and France that the threat of war in Europe had ended, Germany would need to demobilize its forces. The navy, army, and air force would likely be downsized and placed on reduced budgets, while maintaining sufficient strength for national defense.

This is as far as we can realistically predict, but many questions remain. Let’s explore a few.

The Question of the Lost Territories

East Prussia, the Lithuanian Memel/Klaipėda region, Alsace-Lorraine, and Germany’s overseas colonies were all seized after the defeat in World War I.

We can predict that, with Stalin’s ambitions to expand Soviet influence and restore the old Russian Empire’s borders, the two states might collaborate in redrawing their eastern European frontiers.

As for Alsace-Lorraine, there is virtually no chance that France would surrender the territory without war. Although the region had a significant German-speaking population, at best there might be a slim possibility of a referendum being held to resolve the dispute.

Regarding Germany’s former colonies, it is unlikely that the restored empire would care enough to reclaim them. Germany would probably prefer to consolidate its power within Europe, which would remain its top priority.

The Question of Their Lost Allies and Their Ambitions

• Turkey had dismantled the Ottoman dynasty and completely reformed itself from the remnants of the Ottoman Empire. It had no ambitions to restore the old imperial system, making this question largely unrealistic.
• Bulgaria, having lost its territorial gains from World War I, would likely seek to recover them. How it might achieve this, however, is left to speculation—perhaps through another war or diplomatic maneuvering.
• Hungary would want to return to its pre-Trianon borders, but with Romania now a close German ally, these ambitions would likely never be realized in practice.

Thanks for reading…